For a number of reasons, netbooks have quickly risen in popularity among the general populace. Everyone seems to swoon over these little laptops and their ability to shove the entirety of the Internet into such a small package. At the same time, I’m starting to suspect that netbooks may already be obsolete. Have they already overstayed their welcome?
This hasn’t really been reflected in the sales of the Acer Aspire One (shown above) and other netbooks just yet, but there is something to this argument. Despite the impressive volume that they’ve been able to push, netbooks still haven’t fully invaded our digital lifestyles. How many Eee PCs do you see at Starbucks compared to people on their Macbooks? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Why We Liked Netbooks in the First Place
When we first saw the notebook PC, everyone thought that it was pretty amazing to have that kind of computing power shoved into a portable package. Yes, early laptops were very clunky by today’s standards, but at least you could pack them up and take them with you. While laptops offer a great deal of portability, the ultraportable models are still too expensive for the average consumer.
The emergence of the netbook approached this very niche, allowing people to have a (nearly) full laptop experience on something that cost a lot less and was a lot smaller. Netbooks were never meant to fully replace our main computers, whether they be desktops or laptops, but the supplementary nature was perfect for casual web surfing and lightweight word processing. We like netbooks because they’re small, cheap, and “powerful enough” for casual use.
Shifting Preferences to Smartphones
And this is why I’m starting to think that netbooks could end up being just a small blip on the gadget radar. Technology is advancing very quickly in the mobile phone market and smartphones are almost able to offer the same kind of experience that you can get from a netbook. Remember that most netbooks have limited storage and processing capabilities, so they still won’t be able to replace notebooks.
By contrast, a smartphone is inherently a complementary device but it is also one that many people will want to have anyway. In the business world, the smartphone has combined the functionality of a PDA, a mobile email device, and a cell phone. The consumer market is quickly moving in the direction of smartphones as well. You don’t need a three-piece suit to carry a BlackBerry anymore.
This is perhaps best demonstrated with the astronomical popularity of the Apple iPhone. Although I think that Apple could do very well with a MID or UMPC of its own, Cupertino is confident in the abilities of its iPhone and iPod touch. What purpose does a netbook serve? It lets you surf the “real” Internet and –guess what?– so does the iPhone. The same can be said about many smartphones and they are all much more portable than an Eee PC.
What is the Marketable Advantage?
Therein lays the rub. In order for a device to be popular among both the niche markets and the general public, it has to have a marketable advantage over some of its compatriots. Some people prefer the iPod interface, and perhaps that’s why they may be inclined to choose an iPod nano over a SanDisk Sansa. People may opt for the T-Mobile G1 over another smartphone, because the Android platform is so new, shiny, and flexible.
Where is the marketable advantage of the netbook platform? Compared to a laptop, it doesn’t offer the same high level of functionality. For most netbooks, you can’t expect to do very much in terms of high-end photo editing or other resource-intensive tasks.
If you like the size of something like the Eee PC 1000HA, you may be better off moving up an inch or two to get a subnotebook of some kind. If you want to be even more portable, it may be more affordable and enjoyable to invest in an iPod touch.
Is it the keyboard, then? There are a lot of people out there who can type more quickly on a BlackBerry than they can on an Eee PC. While netbook keyboards are certainly improving, they’re not the same as a “real” laptop either.
The Emergence of Premium Netbooks
I could be completely off in the deep end on this, but there is a distinct possibility in my mind that the netbook market could once again be split in two. On the one hand, you can have increasingly inexpensive netbooks that do even less. Negroponte is clearly moving in this direction with that whole OLPC thing.
On the other hand, we’re starting to see the emergence of premium netbooks. You may want to call them subnotebooks, if you prefer. During the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this year, we saw a few premium netbooks. It seems that there is a demographic who appreciates the small size of a netbook, but they want more out of it. This is a place that companies like FlyBook tend to go and do quite well in this niche. They also charge top dollar at well over two grand to start.
The Asus Eee PC T91 and the Gigabyte M912 Cafe Book are both convertible tablets, but they’re no bigger than their regular netbook counterparts. That could be a major selling point.
The Sony VAIO P (Pocket) is another example of a premium netbook, though Sony doesn’t want you to call it a netbook. This 8-inch subnotebook has nearly a full-sized keyboard and a full build of Windows Vista. It also costs about a thousand dollars.
Netbooks Going the Way of the Pager?
A growing number of people are diving into the land of the smartphone, because they’re starting to expect their mobile phones to do more than just make phone calls. They want to use these phones for updating their Twitter status (follow me!), watching YouTube videos, checking their email, taking pictures, listening to music, navigating around town, and so much more. It’s not “just a phone” anymore.
As this trend continues to grow and more people justify the cost of wireless data, we may start to see a diminishing interest in netbooks. People will still hang on to their regular laptops, but they may not be able to find the right place for a netbook anymore. The increasingly powerful smartphone can do pretty much the same thing.
Are netbooks going to be our generation’s version of the pager? Remember when it was cool to have a beeper? Remember what happened when everyone started getting cell phones instead? That may be the fate of the netbook unless the manufacturers bring some sort of competitive advantage to the segment.
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